Panorama - Coface Global Growth

Signs of a recovery in global growth are multiplying at the start of 2017.Companies are more confident. If the uptrend in inflation in developed economies and in China takes shape in coming months and does not only concern energy prices, it would testify to a distancing of deflation risk.

Two negative points nevertheless cloud this scenario. Firstly, the recovery remains under threat from political risk which could materialise this year: elections in western Europe and more specifically in France (GDP growth could be halved to 0.7% instead of 1.3% given increased uncertainty), as well as still high risk of eventual protectionist measures by the US. In addition, signs of a rally are often too hesitant at this stage to enable a reclassification of many countries and sectors in the Coface risk scales.